Month: April 2025

Today, My partner and I discussed and decided to solve two questions in our report as follow:
Can we identify a trend or seasonality in conflict events in the U.S. over time?
How can U.S. states be grouped based on similarities in the frequency and nature of conflict events they experience?

Today, I started writing the report and discussed the title and issues section with my partner

Today, I conducted research and performed several tests on the ACLED dataset. After transforming the data into a monthly format and calculating the number of events per month, I applied the Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) test to determine whether the time series was stationary. I then decomposed the data into trend, seasonality, and residual components. The decomposition revealed a noticeable downward trend as well as clear seasonal patterns in the data.

Today, I researched the ACLED dataset in the U.S. to solve my question: Is there a specific time and location where demonstration events occur most frequently and repeat annually? My goal is to identify patterns in the relationship between time and location to determine whether they can be used to predict future events.